Play-By-Play Super Bowl Gambling Analysis

A paper written by the eponymously named Keith Jacks Gamble at Cal-Berkeley details an analysis of individual Super Bowl plays and their influence on market prices for a contract that paid only if the Colts won the game (ie a bet on the Colts).

To no one’s surprise, the game’s real MVP was not Peyton Manning, but Rex Grossman:

The player whose performance contributed the most to the Colts’ win
was Bears’ quarterback Rex Grossman. Grossman’s completions, including
one touchdown pass, added 14.5% to the Bears’ chance of winning. His
incompletions, including two interceptions, took away 35.25%. His two fumbles,
one lost and one recovered, as well as a sack combined to take away
15.75%. In total, Rex Grossman’s performance contributed 36.5% to the
Colts’ chance of winning, an amount more than twice the contribution of
the top performing Colt.

The gambling world owes you a trophy, Rex.

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